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Copyright, Li Read, 2009 April, 2009. It continues. The daily turmoil, I mean. Statistics from the last quarter of 2008 were as gloomy as predicted. Losses are real. In the morning, over coffee and toast, I flick between BBC, CNN, CBC, MSNBC, BBN, CNBC, just to get some general overview of all the various points of view. The bailouts continue. Banks/financial institutions are still shaky, and much more paper money is being printed. Some people call for letting everything collapse, advising that the market will "correct" the situation correctly. Others maintain that government interception is needed to be able to stem the tide and to turn it in the favour of the consumer, once more. Some hold a middle ground. Still, the bottom line is that no one is sure what will work, whether anything can work, whether anything is savable, and how one can possibly return to a former moment, economically. Clearly, with all the pillars of the economy in some form of collapse, it's a societal shift moment, and not just a recessionary cyclic "usual" process. The interesting thing about the 21st Century, is that all opinion is equal. CNN invites viewers to send in their ireports, and they showcase these with the same intensity usually reserved for the 'talking heads' and their supposedly erudite guests. Someone on Salt Spring, then, could send in their thoughts and find themselves receiving the same airtime as an elected official or a government beaurocrat. Another interesting thing is that it isn't the Information Age so much as it is the Raw Data Age. I hope the schools are teaching thinking skills, and not just going over today's immediate matter. So essential to get our editing functions going, so that we can make sense of all this evenly weighted yet unverified data. Some courses in philosophy and history might also help us to bring some meaning to current events. In the immediate future, I continue to worry about hyperinflation following on this deleveraging/demand destruction period. Yes, house prices have gone down; yes, losses in the stock market have been grave; yes, banks are still not lending/not liquid; yes, cash is being printed with great abandon/nothing backing same but a government...perhaps cash will be the next bubble? Perhaps we will see a new currency replacing the old, and not that far off either? At the moment, interest rates remain low (perhaps suppressed, for the moment), and inventory remains relatively stable (unless one "has to" sell, many owners are not on the market), and prices have come down...if one is a first time buyer, or a saavy investor, it probably is a good time to make a purchase. Quallity real estate, in protected venues (there's that Islands Trust, locally, which has a cap on growth), may be a good place to park some discretionary cash...simply as a way to preserve capital, and so such a purchase is not about short term appreciation. This might be why there has been an increase in viewings and in offers, in the low end residential, since early February -- this is a characteristic of all Coastal markets, and includes the Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island. Media reports are always 90 to 120 days "out", as they focus on statistics from the past. Buyers set markets, and realtors know first what a buyer has decided to do. From the close of 2005, in this secondary home/discretionary marketplace, on the Southern Gulf Islands and on Salt Spring Island, the buyer was reluctant to "act". Sales volume slowed markedly, throughout 2006 and 2007, although it wasn't necessarily understood by those living here. Our buyer profile has evolved into a mainly out of province/if not out of country purchaser, since the internet erased time and geography, and so we are affected by events in the home areas of our buyers, and not by B.C. economic indicators. We felt the slowdown, then, before the primary residence areas of B.C., which all faltered in 2008. I think we will look back, in a couple of years, and see that 2008 was the Year of Fear, and fear breeds inaction, if not downright rout. Since early February, however, these tiny baby steps of activity seem to be promising some new trend developing. It may take until May to have the media start to report same. It may take until August for most people to trust in it. It may take until the Fall or the early Spring of 2010 to find an overall trend in play. Right now, it's Spring, there's a natural desire for change and growth in this season, the winter has been treacherous all over North America, perhaps due to the La Nina influence, and people are ready to receive some good news. Perspective also drives markets, and if a consumer wants change, then change will occur. For more information on the few sales to date, in the low end residential category, on Salt Spring Island, and for a report on projected arrivals by our traditionally non-local buyer, please give me a call. It is not business as usual, and I have been very busy doing many things to attract that non-local person. It does appear that we will see increased activity, on a continuing basis, as Spring evolves into Summer and into early Fall (our usual "grid of activity", then). How may I help you to buy your special Island property? I look forward to your call. Li Read, Managing Broker, Sea to Sky Premier Properties (Salt Spring) # 4 - 105 Rainbow Road, Salt Spring Island, B.C., V8K 2V5 phone: 250-537-8763 fax: 250-537-4287 
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