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Market Analysis

Current Market Conditions

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Copyright, Li Read, 2009

May, 2009.

So...the "real" 21st Century continues to roll out beneath our feet.

It seems, though, that we are becoming more accustomed to the chaos theory of societal change, and are not so fearful of abrupt shifts.

I think, when we look back to 2008, in future years, we will be calling it the Year of the Fear, and in fear driven moments it's natural to simply "stop". We are, after all, merely human.

Locally, our market slowed in both 2006 and in 2007, and sales were sparser than they had been in that buoyant period between 2000 and 2005. We are a secondary home/discretionary marketplace, and so our buyer profile is non-local. We were thus affected by elements/events in the buyers home areas, and not by B.C. economic indicators.

As of April, 2008, though, all coastal areas, including primary residence markets such as found in Vancouver and in Victoria, were experiencing the outcomes of the subprime debacle.

The shift that has occurred, between mid-September and end of January, with more downturns projected, is perhaps societal. Certainly, it's been global, and no one has been unaffected. Housing crash, stock market meltdown, banks/financial institutions faltering, endless printing of paper monies in an effort to buy oneself out of a problem...certainly a reason for fear to strike one into inaction!

Fear can also propel, though, and I have been blogging since last October that I thought we would find cash being the next bubble. So much being printed, nothing backing same but more paper and a government. Various outcomes are possible, including hyperinflation.

The growing valuelessness of cash might be a reason why some people, with discretionary funds, have been considering a real estate purchase in a protected investment area. (There's that Islands Trust, with its cap on growth).

No one has a road map, however, and we're all in this same shaky boat together.

People are trying to save. Back yard gardens are going in, and many people are growing their own produce. Less eating out, and more eating at home. Selling a second car, and just using one...public transport useage is on the rise. Recycling clothing, and not rushing out to buy something new. Not purchasing the latest electronic gadget. Putting off a car purchase. Necessity creates a different lifestyle model, and at the same time as the over the top consumption model is faltering, there is a growing interest in spiritual matters and in courses and workshops on self-realization.

Sounds like a return to the hippie ethic? Not quite!

We are very lucky on Salt Spring Island and on the Southern Gulf Islands to enjoy a wonderful temperate climate (known as "cool Mediterranean"), where one can plant vineyards and olive groves, grow vegetables, plant orchards, and be self-sufficient. The Islands are all a preserve area, with a cap on growth, and the environmental beauties of them have been retained and encouraged.

A strong artistic base to all the Islands gives an appealing flavour to them all, and enriches the cultural life. Easy access to major centres, via ferry or floatplane, means that one enjoys being wonderfully "apart", and yet one is not isolated. All the elements of a pleasing lifestyle, in the 21st Century, are here. Salt Spring, the largest and best serviced of the Islands, and the one with both a stand alone community, and all the amenities (including a hospital), does offer the year round lifestyle.

Low interest rates, coupled with a concern over the validity of cash and the security of banks/financial institutions, are creating an awareness that it might be a good time to return to real estate, especially in protected areas, as a hard asset investment. Preservation of capital is the driver for this activity. This is the fear that propels -- it's about security.

Buyers, however, expect a "deal". They've been reading and watching the same media reports that created a gloom and doom mentality since last Fall. It may take until July for the media to start to report what realtors, those ones who are "in the field", have known since February -- the buyer is back. The buyer, though, is looking for a deal. If sellers are on board and are willing to accept same (the buyer isn't wanting to negotiate), then a transaction takes place. As time goes along, and as inventory clears and little new comes on to take its place (most owners do not want to be sellers, unless they "have to"), then we may actually see some bidding wars develop on some key properties. In some primary residence areas, this is already occurring.

Price it right, advertise where the buyers live, use the internet creatively, and be willing to listen to the buyer's perspective re price point, and a deal will take place.

More info? Please call. Successfully connecting buyers and sellers since 1989, I look forward to bringing my expertise and knowledge to your benefit.

How may I help you to buy your special Island property?

Li Read,
Managing Broker,
Sea to Sky Premier Properties (Salt Spring)

liread33@gmail.com


  • April 2009
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    Li Read


  • Contact Li Read at Sea to Sky Premier Properties (Salt Spring), 4 - 105 Rainbow Road, Salt Spring Island, BC, V8K 2V5; Direct Tel: 1-250-537-7647