December. It brings celebrations

December. It brings celebrations and also a recap of an entire year's outcomes. It also introduces the calendar shift from Fall into Winter on December 20/21... (although meteorological Winter is December 1st).

Short days, mix of rain and sunbursts, occasional snow, and a turn towards the cosy appeal of "home". December also offers cultural traditions and celebratory holiday events...whether with family or friends or on one's own, it's important to pay attention to and to enjoy these annual celebrations.

Real Estate Salt Spring - December 2023

Looking at real estate outcomes, the entire Fall has been a continuation of low inventory, with steady buyer inquiries, but slower sales decisions. Buyers have continued to be interested, but also remain in a "pause mode" about action. December begins with the same trend.

Part of the "pause" is about worry: interest rate uncertainty, impacts of inflation, currency worries, lack of choice for buyers (low inventory does not encourage action), wars and rumours of wars, geopolitical fears. At the same time, a desire to escape urban for rural continues as a strong motivator for action.

What is the Best Time to List

There is no specific "good" time when one might decide to list...there are always buyers around. Sellers and realtors do not create market trends...buyers do that. They act and so create a pattern. The federal government push for strong immigration continues, and the lack of housing also remains as a cross-Canada factor. Lack of supply keeps prices stable and promises escalation

Salt Spring Island - Recreational Area

In B.C., the provincial government continues to add regions to the speculation/vacancy tax. This is in an effort to add to the rental housing stock. If the government added back in the "fixed tenancy" option on a lease, one might find a lot more owners willing to be landlords. The current provincial government cancelled this option. The Gulf Islands (under the Islands Trust form of governance) are considered recreational areas (along with Whistler) and so are not part of the speculation/vacancy tax regions.

Currently, a year lease in a rental goes automatically to a month to month when the lease expires, and an owner can only evict a tenant if they plan to move back into the home or if they sell it and the new owner is moving in. A fixed tenancy means a tenant leaves on that date...or a new fixed tenancy lease can be structured. On the Gulf Islands, this is the only latitude for an owner to remain in control of a tenancy. When the government cancelled this option, rentals became scarce.

Recent Sales Data - Salt Spring Island

At this very beginning of December, there are approximately 88 residential listings available on Salt Spring...not separating out single family, townhomes, waterfront, view, farms. There are approximately 34 land listings for sale...not separating out lots, acreages, waterfront, view, farms. There have been approximately 173 sales to date, ranging from $55,000 for a single-wide trailer in a mobile home park to $4.288 for a 5 acre waterfront home. That may sound like a lot of listing options (122+/- in total, residential and land), but a more balanced market would be in the neighbourhood of 250+ total listings. Lack of supply is the key to price stability and possible price escalation. The market trend effects of this continuing high immigration and low housing inventory may be clearer by late February/early March.

Will AI Change Real Estate?

The impact of AI on real estate is in its infancy...it will be interesting to see outcomes as we go into the new year. New ways to deal with commission structures will also be discussed. December is a month that straddles the past year and looks forward to the "almost here" new year. Change remains the surround sound of our times.

Meantime, this time of year inspires and offers the allure of lights and decorations and special events...of sounds and songs of traditions...of family and friends gathering...of the beauty of a quieter and softer season. It’s a time to enjoy this season of gratitude and joy. December smiles hello.....

Feathered with Golden Leaves

The Gulf Islands & The Islands Trust

Strong Immmigration

Authentic Fall

Market Trends This Fall?

Prices Stable

Residential Listings

At this very beginning of October...

• 97 residential properties for sale on Salt Spring
• between 172,000 (for a single-wide older mobile) to 11,975,000
  (for an ocean view estate acreage)
• 40 properties currently listed below one million

Land Listings

At this very beginning of October...

• 39 Land listings (not separating out lots, acreages, farm parcels, waterfronts...simply undeveloped land offerings)
• 7 commercial listings at this very beginning of October (some are business only options and others are land/buildings plus business).

Recent Sales

• 147 sales to date, with a mix of land, single family, townhomes, waterfronts, commercial, strata-resort options.
• Prices have ranged from 55,000 (for an older mobile in a mobile home park) to 4,288,000 (for a renovated waterfront home on a small acreage)...the bulk of sales have been below 1.4 million.

Earlier Sunsets on Salt Spring

Fall Market Salt Spring Real Estate

Lack of Construction + Invitation for Immigration

Why Invest on Salt Spring Island

Fall is the season of mellow fruitfulness...

Salt Spring Island Attractions

Salt Spring Real Estate Market

Push for Immigration

Canada Day

The Salt Spring Real Estate Market

Islands Trust

Short & Sweet Days of The Summer

The Low Tides of Summer

It's June...the month when the calendar says "Summer", when schools are out for summer vacation, when the days are longest and beaches beckon (yes, those are low tides).

Summer has the word "ease" at the heart of it. Kayak to Chocolate Island, sail through these amazing Gulf Islands (some of the best protected boating waters in the world), enjoy beachcombing, swim in the lakes, hike the trails, picnic wherever your fancy takes you, enjoy al fresco dining with a view at the super restaurants around the island.

A highlight of June? The annual Tour des Iles weekend (voyage between the five Southern Gulf Islands...live music and new discoveries. A WOW). Check the Visitors Centre for dates and details.

The Salt Spring Real Estate Market

So, what about the real estate market at this very beginning of June? The story of low inventory coupled with consistent buyer desire for rural/recreational areas (yes, still the flight from urban to rural) continue to be in place.

The immigration push (federally, the government is encouraging 500,000 immigrants a year, for 2023, 2024, 2025), at the same time as lack of housing (to buy or to rent) remains an issue everywhere, seem to predict rising prices. Lack of supply is always the reason for price increases. It remains, quite simply, a sellers market.

This is not yet the crazy market seen in 2021. So far, we are not noting many multiple offers all at once, with "over ask" outcomes.

Sellers do get close to list, in many cases. In others, price reductions happen first and then often a further reduction at the point of a sale. These differences merely point to the pace of recovery after "the great pause" of 2022. It may take until late August/September to really see the tone of 2023, for real estate patterns.

There are many lingering concerns: interest rate further rises, inflationary pressures, lack of good choices for a buyer, supply chain issues, rising cost of materials (one reason why some buyers ignore undeveloped land listings), geopolitical worries, currency concerns. Worries do create slower outcomes...the persistent refrain: "are we safe yet?".

Since 2016, most buyers have been from Vancouver in the Gulf Islands, and in other rural venues. These buyers plan to live where they purchase, and so take time in considering "where" to relocate. It always takes time to sell property on any Gulf Island, no matter the market trend.

Close to Everything and Yet Wonderfully Apart...

So, we segue into June with fewer listings and renewed desire to own property on a Gulf Island...close to everything and yet wonderfully apart. Remember, too, our form of governance (the Islands Trust) and its preservation mandate. The Trust also keeps growth low. Between the Trust and the lack of interest from most owners in becoming sellers, and the pressure for housing, one might agree that price points will rise in real estate.

Look forward to helping you with your real estate needs (whether selling or buying) on Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands. Your best interests are my motivation.

Meantime, June is here...and whether a resident or a visitor, Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands smile a Summer hello. Enjoy!

The Great Pacific Northwest Coast

The great Pacific Northwest Coast, including the delectable Southern Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island, enjoy this month of natural largesse...blossoms tumble through orchards, and gardens flower forward. Lucky us to be here, whether this is home or just visiting.

What about the local real estate market at this very beginning of May, the month that has Spring easing into Summer? This past April continued to show low inventory and significant buyer interest, in options below 1.5 million. The higher priced properties began to get renewed inquiries, but fewer sale outcomes. May usually traditionally begins the sales of upper tier priced opportunities. Low inventory continues as we start into May.

Both Canada and local community markets are aware of the continuing lack of housing...at the same time that the federal government is encouraging strong immigration (1.5 million by 2025). Lack of supply and increased demand promise price stability and also seem to encourage price increases.

Most buyers locally continue to be from Vancouver, and the desire to move from urban to rural remains a strong motivator. Smatterings of buyers from Alberta and Ontario are also present...retirees? Interest from out of country is there, but the federal two year ban on foreign ownership has created misunderstandings. There are many exemptions. One exemption: the ban does not apply to recreational regions and so Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands would be exempt. Important for out of country buyers to check into this.

Not Only A Change In The Weather

The many societal shifts propelled by covid shut-downs continue to unroll. Working from home is a major change. The authentic ability of the internet to support this allows this significant work change. Will empty office spaces and commercial buildings now be revamped into needed residential housing? Creative designers are needed! On Salt Spring, for example, the vacant upper level office spaces in Ganges Village could be reconfigured into living opportunities.

Real estate has always been both global and local, as far as trends go. Population movements historically change the status quo in all countries. Throughout the world, population movement is underway...the seeking of better lives. All countries thus shift socially in response to massive migrations.

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands remain unincorporated areas, with a governance format that comes under the Islands Trust and the CRD (Capital Regional District). The post-covid changes were perhaps unforeseen, but the huge impact of artificial intelligence is another significant game-changer...Will the 1974 Trust documents survive unaltered? Hmmm.... Early May may be about more than local real estate outcomes.

The Summer Winds

So, we start into the natural allure of May with continuing low inventory choices for buyers and with a desired lifestyle attracting them...a property on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands shimmers invitingly. Prices remain relatively stable. Will they rise? Too soon to say...couple huge inward migration with lack of housing options and it would appear upward pricing will continue. It may take until September to chart this. Summer sales need to take place first.

Beautiful May

So...beautiful May. Mother's Day and the Victoria Day Holiday Weekend are mainstays of this lovely month. Beaches to walk on, sailing and kayak adventures to enjoy, hiking trails that beckon, outdoor patios to allure at our amazing restaurants, wine and cidery tastings, Saturday Market in the Park, Tuesday Farmers Market, farmgate stands, art openings at the Ganges Galleries, ArtSpring events, studio tours, meditation and spa renewals, ArtCraft...wow...feed the mind, the body, and the soul on the dazzling Gulf Islands.

Look forward to meeting you and to helping you with your real estate needs on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands. Thank you.

Unique Real Estate in Unique Areas

The very beginning of April is with us. T.S. Eliot poetically stated that "April is the cruelest month". Perhaps he meant that the month begins with the face of March still in place (aberrant weather events) and ends with the wondrous and fully flowered May promise.

What about the real estate market on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands at this very beginning of April?

All coastal markets are noting that low inventory is continuing.

In the main, locally, many owners are choosing to hold what they see as a good investment...a property on a Gulf Island. The Islands Trust form of governance (put in place in 1974, by the provincial government, to "preserve and protect the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands, for all B.C. residents") effectively capped growth through strict zoning/bylaws controls. Regardless of market trend, there is always a low inventory on a Gulf Island. An investment security net?

Occasionally, an aging owner might consider moving...but low inventory is an issue everywhere and they can't find an option in that area they would consider moving to. They don't want to be houseless and so do not list.

Global Events

The federal government is seeking strong immigration between 2023 and 2025...up to 1.5 million new arrivals. This policy is happening at the same time as continuing low inventory for either purchase or rent, across the country. For decades, lack of housing has not been addressed. A recipe for price stability and price escalation?

There are many events, often of a global nature, and so beyond individual control, that could be described as "worrying". Wars & rumours of wars, supply chain issues, insecurity of interest rate rises, currency concerns, stock market fluctuations, a fear that banks will fail, shifting job markets...what to count on? Chaos is a factor.

Post-pandemic, the entire work environment has changed. The ability to work from home, as the internet finally authentically made this possible, has put rural and urban living on the same footing. This may be a driver to action as buyers sell their urban lifestyles and choose rural. A kinder, gentler experience?

In a time of extraordinary change, it's ever more important to focus on our periphery vision and not to follow the narrow channels prepared for us. Understanding the societal effect of a robust artificial intelligence might be worth a look. Back up a bit, see what flickers on the edges of our visual sphere and pay attention to that...it's where creativity lives...and any one of us can create the new. Are you looking?

The Preservation Cap?

So, at the very beginning of April, there are not a lot of real estate choices for a buyer in any property type or price point.

Plus: A call from the federal government for significant inward migration.

A desire from a buyer to live in smaller areas that offer a pleasing lifestyle. The fulfillment of the long-standing government "preservation" cap on growth on Gulf Islands. The allure of real estate as a good hard asset investment to preserve capital. The messages seem to suggest that unique real estate in unique areas will continue to be a stalwart investment choice.

April. A good time to immerse into Nature. The annual promise of renewal...Spring's gift. Important to "see". Maybe even to look back at another era of extreme change and societal upheaval: the Industrial Revolution of the 19th Century. Time to reconnect with the Romantic movement in literature and music? Their emphasis on the inspirational natural world might work in our era, too?

Things To Do on Salt Spring this Spring

On Salt Spring? Catch the annual Spring Art Show, drop into the annual Home and Garden Show, enjoy the Spring menus at our great dining spots, renew with a healing arts moment at one of the spa opportunities, see an event at ArtSpring, picnic at a beach, explore the hiking/walking trails, kayak to Chocolate Beach...Spring says get up, spruce up, get out...open the doors and windows...breathe.

March 1st is meteorological Spring...the calendar says it's March 20th. This 2022/2023 winter La Nina weather pattern on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands brought several snow and wind storms, (not our usual "cool Mediterranean" winter pattern). Now the very beginning of March says hello and smiles its daffodil promise. I'm in.

What about that mixed message real estate pattern? In Fall 2022, there was a significant pause in activity/outcomes, although low inventory remained the theme. Buyers appeared to be digesting fearful issues such as increases in interest rates and impacts of inflationary pressures. A pause is not a correction.

Meteorological Spring

In early 2023, activity began again. The same uncertainties remained: impacts of interest rate rises and inflationary pressures, worry about geopolitical issues (distant wars, supply chain inadequacies, concerns about lingering pandemic outbreaks and possible new ones, currency worries, among others)...it seemed, however, that people just wanted to get on with their lives, and so action ramped up.

The main driver to action continues to be that flight from urban to rural. The main buyer profile in the rural areas continues to be from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

The lack of housing is a huge problem across Canada, and also impacts the entire province. Federally, the government is seeking to attract 500,000 immigrants a year, starting this year. Lack of housing to buy or to rent will continue to keep prices stable in all regions...and possibly lead to renewed price increases, especially in desired areas.

On Salt Spring, at this very beginning of March, there are very few single family homes listed for sale, and those residential offerings under one million tend to be strata properties (mainly townhomes) or small recreational cottages or serious fixer-uppers. Even properties over a million may need renovations...there are very few step-in ready opportunities available at this moment.

Interest in farm-style options continues...a desire to be self-sufficient (yes, that’s our friend the “back to the land” movement again). Boaters do ask about waterfronts with a dock...and these are quite rare now. Rare does imply stronger pricing.

Pause or Correction?

There may be some listings opening up from aging retirees, who might like to return to city options, to be close to specific health requirements or to family, but they can’t move unless they can find something where they would like to move to...lack of inventory is an issue everywhere. These aging boomers do not want to be houseless, and so that lack of housing product everywhere does stop listing outcomes on the Gulf Islands.

We live in an era of profound change and part of that is to do with impacts of artificial intelligence on our everyday lives. Another: the moving off of the boomer voice and the impact of the millennial shift. It’s important to think about that when listing a home built in the 1990s, say. A lot of that era is on the Gulf Islands. Who is the buyer? What is a millennial seeking? How might one create that in a boomer-built house?

Housing Glut?

In spite of so many shifts and concerns, it’s important to remember the important things: family, friends, volunteering, keeping an eye on the future (no need to fear it...it’s just the evolution of what we always do...live our lives), and to work for best outcomes for our communities.

Looking to move to Salt Spring or a Gulf Island? Thinking of selling your piece of paradise? Call me. Successfully connecting buyers with sellers since 1989, I look forward to bringing my expertise, knowledge, and experience to your benefit. (liread33@gmail.com).

February...and the slow slide into Spring begins.

It's a short month, with a romantic allure on Valentine's Day (Feb 14th), and a weekend holiday on B.C. Family Day (Feb 20th) Weekend.

Yes, a mix of winter and early spring, with that freshening sense of new beginnings (always the welcome message of real Spring).

Early Real Estate Patterns Emerging

What about the real estate patterns that are also beginning to emerge? It often takes until mid-March to get the tone of a market in a secondary home marketplace, such as the Gulf Islands. The buyer profile on the Gulf Islands is not local...buyers arrive from elsewhere...and for the last several years (perhaps fully since 2015?), the main buyer has been from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

After the first pandemic closures in early 2020, real estate activity began...the flight from urban to rural was the main driver to action. The ability of the internet to authentically allow the option to work from home, no matter that location, also was in place by 2020...allowing that rural shift to successfully take place.

In 2021, the inventory thinned out dramatically in all rural areas and in some cases there were bidding wars (more buyers than sellers). The low inventory continued throughout 2022, but buyers were pausing...inquiries came in, viewings would take place, but activity from buyers had slowed. Uncertainty was the culprit.

In the latter part of 2022, worries about the impact of distant wars, supply chain issues, concerns about lingering pandemic and health outcomes, fears about rising interest rates, currency concerns, reports of a global recession...all of these uncertainties had buyers simply treading water...are we safe? That seemed to be the major question. A pause is not necessarily a correction.

Lack of supply is what keeps prices stable and potentially tracking higher. The federal government is seeking immigration of 500,000 each year for the next two years. At the same time, they are putting a two year ban on foreign ownership. (There are many exemptions and one of them is that the ban will not apply to recreational areas (such as the Gulf Islands). Check the federal government website for further details).

Less Supply, More Demand...

CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and Housing) forecast last year that unless 22 million housing units were built by 2030, there would be no alleviation of the lack of supply in Canada. So: few housing units and increased immigration...sounds like a recipe for price increases, in foreseeable future. Hmmm.....

It is interesting, when looking back to previous serious recessionary times, that real estate usually softens a year before other indicators point to such outcomes. If so, that would put 2022 as the softened year in real estate. From early March to early December, 2022, the hesitation in buyer activity did see some dramatic price reductions, to try to jumpstart sales action. In most cases, these reductions did not result in either more viewings or in sales. When a buyer is treading water, it means a period of inaction. Real estate also often recovers sooner than other lagging sectors.

Unusual Active January

In early 2023 (January, often a quiet month), it became active again (working around bursts of winter weather, of course). Sales of some properties that had been listed over a year, and with reductions that had been ignored, suddenly took place. As we enter the very beginning of February, inventory remains extraordinarily low.

Owners do not want to be sellers, it appears, unless they have to. To own a property in a unique area, where the Islands Trust form of governance effectively capped growth (in 1974), may be seen as a stalwart investment...a hedge against inflation and currency pressures. Buyer choice remains limited. By April, media reporting may be highlighting this renewed buyer activity and the lack of listings. More information? Contact me (liread33@gmail.com).

A Time of New Possibilities

We are all prisoners of our time...this current time period is full of unknowns and uncertainties and this does create hesitations. It may also be a time of new possibilities. Ever more important to sharpen up our editing skills. We are all swimming in a sea of raw data...making sense of it is a task indeed.

February is a good month to read, listen to webinars and podcasts, attend investment seminars, to glean bits of wisdom to guide us, to take the information in and then to see what makes sense individually. Also important to keep up to date on AI discoveries...things like ChatGPT could be serious game changers for our era. We are now all, in a way, our own experts. Important to trust our own inner editor.

Meantime, it's inspiring February. Early flowering shrubs, snow drops and crocus bulbs are up, early daffodils in protected areas are smiling hello. Remember to get out and about in the natural world. In our digital universe it is ever more important to really "see" our companion natural environment. Walking meditation is a lovely entry to such appreciation.

February...an invitation to softer days, lighter days, and all that an early Spring promises. Enjoy!